September seems to be a Long expiry, 33 days left. Whats new in September, highest Call base still remains same i.e. 9000 and Put base at 8500, suggests that range for Nifty in September might be 8500-9000. But it seems that 8500 might be breached easily as Open Interest in 8500 & 8400 Strikes is almost same. Looking at moving average support, 50 days Volume Weighted Average Price stands at 8465 & currently Nifty is below its 10 days VWAP & 20 days VWAP which is 8627 & 8632 respectively. As mentioned in my earlier post, yesterdays closing was below 8600 where 10 days VWAP has crossed 20 days VWAP on the downside meaning short term moving average crossing long term moving average on downside confirms the SELL for Nifty.
Put-Call Ratio stands at 1.09, suggests that Puts have more open interest then Calls. 8400 Put option strike price adds 18 lakh contracts and 50 days moving average support coming at 8465 means there is still immediate downside visible. RSI is at 54 which is neutral open for both sides. Yesterday's Cash Volumes are at its peek if we look at last 20 days, negative move with high volumes indicates a clear bearish signal, any rise is a Selling opportunity provided 8630-40 is not crossed on closing basis. For the short side one can maintain 8635-8640 as a stop-loss. If we look at chart immediate support comes around 8500, closing below which can trigger further downside up-to 8300. 8300 should act as a very good support and even 8200 is a trend-line support of last 6 months which will be the worst case for now at-least. As we reach towards 8300 one can start building long position as Major uptrend remains intact above 8200.
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