No doubt Nifty has not broken its trend from the day it has reversed from 6800-7000. Month on Month it has given higher closings since March 2016. July expiry close was at 8666, will Nifty be able to sustain above it & give a new high closing is a question arising while looking at data. Nifty 8600 strike Put option open interest seen a addition of 10 lakh contracts not only this on the other side 8600 strike Call option open interest seen reduction of 9 lakh contracts. And it is not a shift of OI from 8600 to higher levels, all the strike prices upto 9100 has seen reduction in OI. And 8800 Strike is now the highest call base which was 9000 previously, which indicates 8800 will act as a very strong hurdle even if it moves higher.
Yesterday's closing was exactly at 8624 which was a 10 day Volume Weighted Average Price as mentioned in my earlier post. Actually it has taken support we can say as it has moved higher today. So as it is close to its 52 week high, sustaining at this level for longer time will definitely trigger higher levels. Next week is expiry and we might see a lot of action in expiry week, if it fails to make a new 52 week high & closes below its 10 days VWAP(Volume Weighted Average Price), we may see 10 VWAP crossing 20 VWAP on downside which will be not a good sign for at least short term. On the other hand if it breaks & makes a new 52 week high will confirm & opens doors for higher levels in next expiry. RSI at 53 does not suggest any sign of overbought, room is definitely there to move higher provided it is not closing below its 10 days VWAP.
So things to watch out is whether NIfty is making new 52 week High which indicates to be on the long side or closing below 8625-8630 levels which will be a short term downside. 8610-8630 are the important levels for short term to watch out. Cash Volumes are consistently on & above its 10 days average volume from last almost 10 days now.
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