Saturday, 13 August 2016

Premium Sheds 20 Points & Open Interest Is Negative, While Nifty Moves Higher!!! Is It a Sign Of Weakness??

While Nifty moves almost 1% from previous close, indicators showing different picture. Cash volumes are above 10 days average volume, premium in futures contract sheds 20 points, open interest in call options is negative meaning showing closing of contracts & Put-Call ratio now stands at 1.02 which is still not a concern but other indications are indicating a negative move soon. 


 Where Nifty is moving towards its expiry? 8500 seems a very strong base now for short term at-least above which there is not much concern. 10 days Volume weighted average is at 8624 & 20 days Volume weighted average is at 8599, both moving averages are very close the moment 10 days VWAP crosses 20 days VWAP its time to close long position or at-least book your profits. Below which weakness may continue up-to 8500 zone. For now it suggests Expiry could be around 8500-8600 range. Because in Put option side 8600 Put options has witnessed highest addition while 8400 Put option witnessed subtraction which suggests for this expiry 8400 is a very less probability for now. 50 days Volume weighted average is at 8389 very close to 8400.
      So we have to  keep an eye on 8624 & 8599, in my previous report I have suggested that any rally towards 8700 should be used to short the market. For now below 8624 & 8599 one can short keeping reasonable stop-loss above 8624. 


No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Disclaimer

"There is a substantial amount of risk in trading securities, and the possibility exists that you can lose all, most or a portion of your capital. I cannot and will not assess or guarantee the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The securities mentioned on my blog Site may not be suitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial condition. The information provided by me, including but not limited to my opinion and analyses, is based on financial models believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed, represented or warranted to be accurate or complete. The charts depict the results of our models and are not influenced by any other factors except the updated parameters which the models use. The models’ signals should not be construed to be investment advice. The information may contain forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here could be wrong due to false signals from the models, or the models being incorrectly structured, incorrectly updated and/or incorrectly interpreted. The signals, forecasts, the BlogSite and my products and services, only express my opinion of various securities. My opinion will be wrong at times because of the limitations of investment analysis. Investment analysis, whether fundamental, technical or any other form of investment analysis, can not predict the future and is not a science that predicts precise and accurate results. Your use of any information from the blog Site is at your own risk and without recourse against me, its owners, directors, officers, employees or content providers."